January-February China's cumulative total imports of nickel pig iron reached 1.8376 million mt, up 13.03% YoY [SMM Analysis]

SMM March 20 Update, According to customs data, China's total nickel pig iron (NPI) imports in January 2025 were 929,000 mt, down 6.7% MoM and up 4.4% YoY; in terms of metal content, the total imported NPI was 116,400 mt (Ni contained), down about 6.6% MoM and up 0.5% YoY. In February, China's total NPI imports were 909,000 mt, down about 2.2% MoM and up 23.5% YoY; in terms of metal content, the total imported NPI was 108,000 mt (Ni contained), down about 7% MoM and up 16% YoY. For the first two months, China's cumulative NPI imports were 1.8376 million mt, up 13% YoY. By category, NPI and FeNi imports showed different performances in January-February. For NPI, January imports pulled back to 899,000 mt, down about 7.3% MoM and up 6.5% YoY. February NPI imports were about 895,000 mt, down about 0.5% MoM and up about 24.4% YoY. The first two months coincided with the period around the Chinese New Year holiday, and shipping schedules were affected by the holiday, leading to a decline in import volumes. From the perspective of raw material supply from Indonesian smelters, the approval for nickel ore release in February 2025 became clearer, but overall mine supply in January-February remained tight. Some smelters stockpiled nickel ore at the end of 2024, so raw material supply was not significantly impacted. From the supply side in Indonesia, the operation of smelters in January-February showed some changes, with new capacity released from the end of 2024, while some smelters saw significant production declines due to management adjustments. Additionally, some production lines reduced their load during the Chinese New Year holiday. According to SMM, January production was up about 0.99% MoM and 17.97% YoY, while February production was down about 7.32% MoM and up about 14.85% YoY. Demand side, stainless steel production in Indonesia in January-February was adjusted downward, weakening the demand for NPI. Meanwhile, domestic stainless steel production also saw a significant decline before and after the Chinese New Year, mainly due to the holiday, as the market experienced a low consumption cycle. However, strong overseas demand for domestic stainless steel, driven by uncertainties in tariffs, limited the decline in 300-series stainless steel production, and the demand for high-grade NPI from Indonesia did not weaken significantly. For FeNi, imports in January-February showed an initial increase followed by a decrease. January FeNi imports were about 30,000 mt, up 18.7% MoM and down 34.1% YoY; February FeNi imports were about 14,000 mt, down about 53.4% MoM and 16% YoY. By country, the main growth in January came from New Caledonia and Brazil, up about 80.2% and 41.8% MoM respectively, while other countries saw slight declines. Due to the Chinese New Year holiday, major domestic stainless steel mills front-loaded their demand for overseas FeNi, leading to concentrated imports in January. In February, except for Colombia, imports from other countries declined sharply, with New Caledonia, Brazil, and South Korea down about 66%, 70.4%, and 58.3% MoM respectively. Entering March, the domestic stainless steel market entered a recovery phase, with further increases in production schedules, leading to a further recovery in demand for NPI and FeNi, and potentially larger import growth compared to February.